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Mets have 5 .300 hitters in lineup, Who would have thought
angy
post Apr 29 2012, 08:12 PM
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To my pleasant surprise the Mets have demonstrated an offense that I'm sure is surprising a lot of people. And that's without Davis or Bay doing anything. Unfortunately their offense goes into hiding when Santana takes the mound. It's still early and a lot can change. And the Murphy experiment is also holding up and Tejada is making us forget Reyes. Who knows, maybe in a few years we will be the envy of the NL.
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Cactus
post Apr 29 2012, 09:30 PM
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good thing the offense is at least competent so far...currently only the brewers and twins have a worse run differential than the mets in all of baseball.


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Batman Forever
post Apr 29 2012, 11:10 PM
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QUOTE (Cactus @ Apr 29 2012, 09:30 PM) *
good thing the offense is at least competent so far...currently only the brewers and twins have a worse run differential than the mets in all of baseball.


That is a very misleading snapshot as the mets had three very bad games in what has been a very good 22 game start.

I would sign up for the next 22 to go as well as the last 22.

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Truefan79
post Apr 30 2012, 07:30 AM
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I've said all along I thought the Mets would have a good offense. It's their pitching I was worried about. That being said the Mets offense was putrid up until this series with Rockies. Going into this series they had scored only like 56 runs which was the 3rd or 4th worst in baseball. Even scoring 22 runs or whatever it was they scored this weekend they are only at 18th. So there is still some work to do.


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People ask me what I do in winter when thereís no baseball. Iíll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

- Rogers Hornsby

QUOTE
Trading specs for Santana would be a disaster, just ask the Twins.

-mvr 7/2/12
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Truefan79
post Apr 30 2012, 07:32 AM
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QUOTE (Batman Forever @ Apr 30 2012, 12:10 AM) *
That is a very misleading snapshot as the mets had three very bad games in what has been a very good 22 game start.

I would sign up for the next 22 to go as well as the last 22.


That's not misleading at all. In fact it's one of the best indicators of who the good teams are. Usually a team with a - run differential can not sustain success over a prolonged period. It's really quite simple. If you give up more runs then you score you are going to eventually lose. I think the Mets are currently 6-0 in 1 run games. Last season they were like 15-28. The pitching has carried this season so far.


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People ask me what I do in winter when thereís no baseball. Iíll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

- Rogers Hornsby

QUOTE
Trading specs for Santana would be a disaster, just ask the Twins.

-mvr 7/2/12
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Batman Forever
post Apr 30 2012, 08:39 AM
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QUOTE (Truefan79 @ Apr 30 2012, 08:32 AM) *
That's not misleading at all. In fact it's one of the best indicators of who the good teams are. Usually a team with a - run differential can not sustain success over a prolonged period. It's really quite simple. If you give up more runs then you score you are going to eventually lose. I think the Mets are currently 6-0 in 1 run games. Last season they were like 15-28. The pitching has carried this season so far.


With such a small sample, True, it very well can be misleading.

As noted three blowout games in 22 skews the run differential.

It is a good stat. But if you are going to lose a game by 5, and it blows out to 9 it is not a big deal. Winning those close games is a great indicator of a winner too.
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Truefan79
post Apr 30 2012, 09:44 AM
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QUOTE (Batman Forever @ Apr 30 2012, 10:39 AM) *
With such a small sample, True, it very well can be misleading.

As noted three blowout games in 22 skews the run differential.

It is a good stat. But if you are going to lose a game by 5, and it blows out to 9 it is not a big deal. Winning those close games is a great indicator of a winner too.


Again it's not misleading. There is a reason why teams with + differential all lead their respective divisions. The one exception being the Al Central where almost all the teams are -. At some point it will even out. Right now the Mets are coming out on top. While it's nice that these things are working out right now the likely hood of them doing so over a full season is not in a teams favor if they produce - run differentials.

In 2011 no team with a - run differential made the playoffs. Same with 2010, 2009, and 2008. The last time it happened was in 2007 with Arizona.

You can't simply say well if you remove this game or that game etc. The bottom line is that right now the Mets are allowing more runs then they produce. That's not a winning formula and if they want to continue their winning it's going to have to change. History says so.

A little edit here. We aren't the only ones having this discussion:

QUOTE
After losing five of six, the Mets have won five of six and are now four games over .500 despite being outscored by 19 runs (107-88). They're the only team in baseball with a winning record and a minus-10 or more run differential. -- Joe Janish: Mets Today


--------------------
People ask me what I do in winter when thereís no baseball. Iíll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

- Rogers Hornsby

QUOTE
Trading specs for Santana would be a disaster, just ask the Twins.

-mvr 7/2/12
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angy
post Apr 30 2012, 03:08 PM
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And we aren't the only ones wanting to keep Kirk in CF. Almost every sports announcer supports the idea. Let him play until he shows he can't handle it. As of now he is one of the best things to happen in NY.
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Truefan79
post Apr 30 2012, 03:24 PM
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QUOTE (angy @ Apr 30 2012, 05:08 PM) *
And we aren't the only ones wanting to keep Kirk in CF. Almost every sports announcer supports the idea. Let him play until he shows he can't handle it. As of now he is one of the best things to happen in NY.


Well currently he is the 2nd best hitting CF'er in the NL and 7th overall in the MLB. #1 being Kemp who is simply making pitchers look silly.


--------------------
People ask me what I do in winter when thereís no baseball. Iíll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

- Rogers Hornsby

QUOTE
Trading specs for Santana would be a disaster, just ask the Twins.

-mvr 7/2/12
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Truefan79
post May 1 2012, 03:54 PM
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QUOTE
Some will point to the Mets' minus-20 run differential and say their 13-10 record is the product of good luck and a small sample size.

Notable Mets
Late & Close Situations
H-AB BB
Lucas Duda 5-13 3
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 4-8 2
Daniel Murphy 4-12 0
David Wright 3-8 4
Josh Thole 3-11 2
Ruben Tejada 3-11 2

But the Mets would probably tell you that they earned their way to this mark by wearing out opposing pitchers and coming through in big spots.

We alluded to it throughout this piece, but the thing that allowed the Mets to exceed expectations in April was how they hit in the game’s most-important situations.

Baseball-Reference.com defines a Late & Close plate appearance as one coming in the seventh inning or later with your team tied, up by one, or trailing, but with the tying run at least on deck.

The Mets had a .286 batting average and a .389 on-base percentage in Late & Close situations in April. Those were 28 and 29 points higher than the NL teams with the next-best numbers.

And they represent the biggest statistical reason why the Mets are where they are at this point in the season.


Another point to this debate. I never would have guessed it with the Mets LOB% but they were pretty good in "clutch" situations. I would point out to this writer that although that is nice, relying on it for an entire season is far more risky then just scoring more runs then you give up. Not being in those situations IMO is a better factor to me. I wonder how many close and late games the Mets have had compared to + run differential leaders. I would wager the Mets are playing with fire more so than those teams.

On Edit: The cards have played 22 games and only had late and close in 8. The Rangers are at 14/23. The Mets at 17/23.


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People ask me what I do in winter when thereís no baseball. Iíll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

- Rogers Hornsby

QUOTE
Trading specs for Santana would be a disaster, just ask the Twins.

-mvr 7/2/12
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